Well, that came round quickly! It only feels like yesterday that I was compiling my 2017 Oscar predictions, yet a whole year and plenty of worthy film later, it's time to do it all again for the 90th Academy Awards.
This year's race has been defined by its unpredictability; a race with no front-runner and open to shocks, snubs and surprises, this is arguably the most exciting award season in years. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri performed well at the Golden Globes, snatching Best Picture (Drama), while The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour swept the BAFTA nominations. Lady Bird has emerged as an early favourite, winning Best Picture (Comedy) at the Globes, with strong hauls possible for Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk and the stunning Call Me By Your Name. Can Jordan Peele's directorial-debut Get Out enter the conversation? Who will be this year's little-film-that-could? Will The Big Sick manage a Best Picture nomination or can either Logan or Wonder Woman do it for Team Superhero? Can Blade Runner 2049 score any nods outside the technical categories? Has The Post been lost in the sorting process? So many questions - and a lot of the answers will arrive when the ceremony's nominations are announced on Tuesday 23rd.
Below I have assembled my nomination predictions for the major categories, as well as what would have been submitted on my own ballot. Be sure to share your own thoughts and where you think the season's shocks and surprises will lie?
Best Picture
Predictions:
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Ballot:
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
We know by now that the current format allows up to ten nominees in the Best Picture crowd, but it is usually either eight (2016) or nine (2017). I'm hedging my bets with these predictions and expect I, Tonya and Phantom Thread to ultimately miss out on the final cut, but it's possible that the unpredictability of the race opens it up to an extended line-up of ten. Other potential nominees include The Big Sick, BAFTA-favourite Darkest Hour or Mudbound, although the latter would be a surprise, as Hollywood seem hesitant in letting Netflix in on the gold. Wonder Woman is a very outside bet but has it has its ardent supporters and the political climate may power it to recognition. Molly's Game might, The Disaster Artist perhaps, but both on the peripherals of this race.
My love and support is firmly thrown behind Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk this season, with my ballot made up of other hopefuls Get Out, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. A Ghost Story, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, mother! and Stronger stand no-to-little chance but they're among my favourites of the past twelve months. It's worth noting that not all films have arrived in the UK - namely Lady Bird, I, Tonya and Phantom Thread - so my nominations don't cover the whole picture and I've left one spot open, should any of the forthcoming releases impress me. The only potential nominee that would frustrate me is Darkest Hour which is a pretty unworthy, mediocre and manipulative film across the board.
Best Director
Predictions:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Ballot:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Darren Aronofsky, mother!
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Best Director is always known for throwing some shocks into the ring, so I approach this category tentatively. Guillermo del Toro is as close to guaranteed as possible, as are Christopher Nolan and Martin McDonagh, if slightly less so. The final two slots will be filled with a combination of: Lady Bird for Gerwig, Baker for The Florida Project, Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name and Jordan Peele for Get Out. Steven Spielberg's name alone could push him forward for The Post but the film itself doesn't seem to be as hotly-contested as some of his previous pictures, while Denis Villeneuve may sneak in for Blade Runner 2049 if no clear consensus emerges to nab the final spots.
Nolan and del Toro are utterly fantastic and deserving; the two will probably be fighting is out right until the bitter end when the envelope is unsealed and the winner announced. Guadagnino's beautiful and tender approach to Call Me By Your Name deserves recognition but I fear he will be pushed out for Baker. Aronofsky and Lanthimos' films are not to the Academy voters' palette so are bound to be snubbed completely; but the way they both handle the increasingly-claustrophobic, heart-palpating, nerve-shredding mother! and Sacred Deer definitely earn them a spot on my theoretical ballot.
Best Actor
Predictions:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Ballot:
Andy Serkis, War For The Planet of the Apes
Colin Farrell, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Oldman is very likely to scoop the win in March and Hollywood are bound to be dazzled and hoodwinked by his performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour; it's the loudest shriek of 'Oscar Bait' this whole season. My heart would break a thousand times if Chalamet missed out for his performance as Elio in what I consider 2017's greatest leading performance; Kaluuya is a pretty firm bet as well. Day-Lewis may sneak in as a goodwill gesture, with rumours of his retirement circulating; rumours surrounding Franco may ruin his chances, with recent sexual allegations arising towards the end of voting. It probably won't change much at this late stage, mainly because this race is so thin on the ground and most ballots were submitted; if anyone could sail through here, it's Denzel Washington for the titular role in Roman J. Israel, Esq - but the film has no support or momentum outside his performance.
Chalamet would of course win my number one spot, but Gyllenhaal is a close second: his astonishing, subtle work in Stronger is being unfairly overlooked (much like the film itself), and it's incredibly disappointing to see. Kaluuya is tremendous in Get Out and he so excellently grounds the film. Serkis' portrays so much emotion in War, the closing chapter of the Planet of the Apes trilogy, with his phenomenal motion-capture turn almost faultless. Farrell's dry line-delivery and tone is fantastic in Sacred Deer and would earn my fifth and final spot on the ballot.
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Ballot:
Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Never bet against Meryl, but out of the five, she's probably the one in most danger of losing her place in the line-up. Jessica Chastain is queueing up for Molly's Game after missing out for Miss Sloane last year. Emma Stone is an outside bet for Battle of the Sexes but she got in at the Golden Globes, while Annette Benning's BAFTA nomination for Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool could cause an upset at the Academy. Brooklynn Prince would be a lovely surprise for her role in The Florida Project but the Academy so very rarely reward youngsters that it's incredibly unlikely.
Hawkins and McDormand will fight it out to the finish line and I'd be happy with a win for either; they are very different performances but phenomenal nonetheless. Jennifer Lawrence delivers a career-best in mother! and controls the piece ever so effectively, commanding and impressive at each and every shocking turn. Jessica Chastain is fantastic in Molly's Game and it's a shame she hasn't received as much traction for it. And Brooklynn Prince, at just eight, delivers the finest young actor performance since Jacob Tremblay in Room and deserves to be playing in the big league.
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plumber, All The Money In The World
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Williem Defoe, The Florida Project
Ballot:
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Williem Defoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actor is a tough fight this year, with a number of performances capable of breaking through into the conversation. Rockwell will likely go all the way on the night but Williem Defoe seems to be a category-staple and at one stage looked likely to win the whole thing, although this sentiment is fading with each win for Rockwell. I'm expecting the Academy to double-dip with The Shape of Water and nominate both Michael Shannon and Richard Jenkins; elsewhere I'm predicting Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg to cause a vote-split, pushing them both out of the conversation. Christopher Plumber's headline-grabbing, Globe and BAFTA nominated turn in All The Money In The World will probably translate to a nomination from the Academy too.
As long as Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg are both nominated, I'm okay with this category - but, again, I think vote-splitting could cause an upset. I'd love Barry Keoghan to sneak in for his work on The Killing of a Sacred Deer but it looks extremely unlikely at this juncture. Speaking of Keoghan, you could nominate any of the Dunkirk cast in this category and it be justified - but no one particularly stands-out from the crowd. Jenkins and Shannon are both fantastic in The Shape of Water but I simply couldn't fit them in such a tight category and poor Will Poulter missed out for his tremendous turn in Detroit last summer. I'd argue Supporting Actor is the strongest category this year - or at least tied with Supporting Actress.
Best Supporting Actress
Allison Jannery, I, Tonya
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Ballot:
Allison Williams, Get Out
Amira Casar, Call Me By Your Name
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Another tough category. Jannery and Metcalf look like sure-things while Spencer, Blige and Hunter could easily be knocked out, with Allison Williams or Catherine Kenner vying to Get In for Get Out. Hong Chau (Downsizing), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) and Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) all have their supporters, especially the latter who has social media in particular hyping her loud-mouthed, scene-stealing turn in the raucous comedy.
Supporting Actress is a tough one to narrow down and I haven't even seen the two front-runners in their respective films yet! Tatiana Maslany receives my number one spot for her heartbreaking/heart-rendering performance, again overlooked as Stronger went under most people's radar. Spencer is wonderful in The Shape of Water, as is Casar for her delicate, glamorous under-the-radar turn in Call Me By Your Name. Allison Williams and Michelle Pfeiffer are both utterly compelling and more than worthy of gracing my ballot for Get Out and mother!, respectively. The scene-stealing Holly Hunter just misses out for The Big Sick; a rewatch may change that and it'd be Casar in trouble. A very, very strong category.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
Predictions:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Ballot:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Writing (Original Screenplay):
Predictions:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ballot:
A Ghost Story
The Big Sick
Get Out
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Cinematography:
Predictions:
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
The Shape of Water
Ballot:
A Ghost Story
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design:
Predictions:
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Ballot:
Beauty & The Beast
I, Tonya
The Greatest Showman
Murder On The Orient Express
The Shape of Water
Best Film Editing:
Predictions:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ballot:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
mother!
The Shape of Water
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling:
Predictions:
Darkest Hour
I, Toya
Ballot:
Wonder
Best Original Score:
Predictions:
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Ballot:
A Ghost Story
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Original Song:
Predictions:
Evermore, Beauty & The Beast
Never Forget, Murder On The Orient Express
Mystery of Love, Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me, Coco
This Is Me, The Greatest Showman
Ballot:
Mystery of Love, Call Me By Your Name
Never Forget, Murder On The Orient Express
Remember Me, Coco
This Is Me, The Greatest Showman
Visions of Gideon, Call Me By Your Name
Best Production Design:
Predictions:
Beauty & The Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Ballot:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
mother!
The Shape of Water
Best Sound Editing:
Predictions:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Ballot:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Best Sound Mixing:
Predictions:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Ballot:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
mother!
The Shape of Water
Best Visual Effects:
Predictions:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
War For The Planet of the Apes
Ballot:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Okja
The Shape of Water
War For The Planet of the Apes
Best Animated Feature:
Predictions:
The Breadwinner
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Mary & The Witch's Flower
Ballot: *
Coco
Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Feature:
Predictions:
A Fantastic Woman
In The Fade
The Insult
Loveless
The Square
Ballot: *
Raw
*denotes a category I would leave open
- - - - -
Predictions Tally:
The Shape of Water: 14
Dunkirk: 9
Blade Runner 2049: 6
Three Billboards: 6
Darkest Hour: 5
Lady Bird: 5
Phantom Thread: 5
Call Me By Your Name: 4
The Florida Project: 4
I, Tonya: 4
Beauty & The Beast: 3
Get Out: 3
The Post: 3
Baby Driver: 2
The Big Sick: 2
Coco: 2
The Disaster Artist: 2
The Greatest Showman: 2
Mudbound: 2
Murder On The Orient Express: 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 2
Ballot Tally:
The Shape of Water: 12
Call Me By Your Name: 10
Dunkirk: 10
Blade Runner 2049: 7
The Killing of a Sacred Deer: 7
mother!: 7
Three Billboards: 5
A Ghost Story: 4
Get Out: 4
Baby Driver: 3
Stronger: 3
Coco: 2
The Florida Project: 2
The Greatest Showman: 2
Molly's Game: 2
Murder On The Orient Express: 2
War For The Planet of the Apes: 2
And that is what I call that. It's been a fierce, fierce race and I look towards Tuesday morning with baited breath, waiting for the surprises to amaze, the snubs to sting and the lack of love for mother! to downright hurt. Again, send your predictions and wishes over and I'll be back to update this as soon as we've heard the nominations!