By now, the envelopes containing the winners of the 93rd Academy Awards have likely been sealed, the presenters are lined up ready and raring to go, and the final preparations are being put in place for this globe-spanning Oscar ceremony. We didn't think we'd get here, but another award season is about to have its final hurrah in the biggest Hollywood night of the year.
As usual, some races are easier to predict than others, but the tricker categories to call will keep us waiting and anticipating until the envelope is unsealed. Below I've predicted the winner in the feature-length categories, and also included my own outlook - my personal winner, and any notable snubs in each category.
Pictures do not correspond with predictions.
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BEST PICTURE
Nominated: The Father / Judas and the Black Messiah / Mank / Minari / Nomadland / Promising Young Woman / Sound of Metal / The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Nomadland has been the frontrunner of this race for some time now, and it's unlikely to have been usurped. While heading into award season as the favourite has derailed many almost-victors, Nomadland's strong campaign, backed by the incomparable Searchlight Pictures, almost guarantees it the win. Important is the universality of its love - the preferential ballot requires a film to be widely loved and Nomadland's quiet, reflective tone was perfect for 2020.
Arguably the only other major contender for Best Picture is The Trial of the Chicago 7, with its recent SAG Ensemble win showing support from the acting branch, the largest faction of the voting Academy. It doesn't appear likely that the historical legal drama has the strength to overpower Nomadland though, particularly given the film's omission from the Best Director category. Other outside bets included Minari and, to a lesser extent, Promising Young Woman.
You can see my ranking of the Best Picture nominees here.
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BEST DIRECTOR
Nominated: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari / Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman / David Fincher, Mank / Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round / Chloe Zhao, Nomadland.
Chloe Zhao is very sure to have a busy evening, with her forthcoming win in the Best Director category for Nomadland one of the biggest locks of the evening. No one else really stands a shot.
Zhao would likely get my vote, too, although Fennell and Vinterberg both deliver exceptional work. Two of the most visionary films of 2020 were i'm thinking of ending things and Kajillionaire, both of which were incredibly deserving but never really stood a chance at the Oscars.
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BEST ACTOR
Nominated: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal / Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom / Anthony Hopkins, The Father / Gary Oldman, Mank / Steven Yeun, Minari.
Chadwick Boseman is expected to receive the first posthumous Oscar in an acting category since Heath Ledger just over a decade ago for the final performance of his career in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. The likelihood of Anthony Hopkins taking the trophy at the final hurdle has increased the closer we have gotten to the ceremony, although it probably isn't enough to secure gold.
Hopkins delivers his best performance since The Silence of the Lambs and would win my vote with ease. That said, it's a relatively strong line-up across the board, even though I would have been sure to find space for Colin Firth (Supernova) and Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) in the category.
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BEST ACTRESS
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In what can only be described as the most nail-biting race in recent Oscar memory, any of the five have a shot at victory. While the acting categories have grown rather stale and predictable in recent years, Davis (SAG), Day (Globe), McDormand (BAFTA) and Mulligan (Critic's Choice) have all won at major precursors, but none of them have taken two, making this an impossibly difficult category to secure. No one is certain in their prediction here.
Davis is the one I'm giving the edge too: she's beloved by the industry and her SAG win, voted for by her peers, is perhaps the most important of the victories - the overlap between the voting bodies is significant and previous years have almost always signalled the winner of the Oscar. Mulligan is probably second favourite, her ferocious performance leaving an almighty impact on whoever sees the (Best Picture-nominated) film.
McDormand recently won a second Oscar for Three Billboards, so she would fall to third place as its unlikely they would feel the urge to reward her for a third time again so soon - but we mustn't overlook how much the Academy enjoyed Nomadland on the whole. The other two are the only nominees and representatives of their films: Day's Globe success puts her fourth on my list and while Kirby is on the back foot, what an end it would be if every single major body gave the award to a different actress.
Carey Mulligan would get my vote. It's a remarkable performance that showcases her talent and will be remembered the longest. She also deserves recognition for the superb filmography she has been building for years, having been first nominated back in 2009-10. Jessie Buckley (i'm thinking of ending things) and Rosamund Pike (I Care A Lot) would have been terrific nominees here but the category is a rather solid one difficult to find much fault in.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya's impending victory is the most definitive lock of the acting categories; a path for an upset from any other nominee is almost impossible to imagine.
Kaluuya, already one of the greatest actors of his generation, would get my vote without a second thought. It's a shame that this wasn't Stanley Tucci's (Supernova) time to shine but the film just couldn't gather momentum.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominated: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm / Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy / Olivia Colman, The Father / Amanda Seyfried, Mank / Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari.
It's no repeat of Colman vs. Close here, as Youn Yuh-Jung has settled as the probable winner after a string of wins following an up-in-the-air race for most of the season. Bakalova seems to be the closest competition but a nomination in itself is a victory given the genre of film and type of character she plays not typically reflecting the Academy's usual sensibilities.
It's such a weird category! My vote would probably go to Youn but Toni Collette should be winning for i'm thinking of ending things.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominated: Judas and the Black Messiah / Minari / Promising Young Woman / Sound of Metal / The Trial of the Chicago 7.
It's a battle between Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7, and it's closer than I think people realise. Emerald Fennell's Promising Young Woman has the edge following a number of high-profile wins, memorable dialogue and timely subject matter. But Aaron Sorkin is beloved by screenwriters after penning some of the best films of the previous decade, and has always been something of a golden boy in their eyes. That, matched with a socially relevant true story, makes him a real contender for an upset.
Of the five, it would be Promising Young Woman receiving my vote but both Judas and the Black Messiah and Minari are worthy nominees. Another Round really deserved a screenplay nomination.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominated: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm / The Father / Nomadland / One Night in Miami... / The White Tiger.
Nomadland and The Father duke it out for Adapted Screenplay, with the former's predicted wins in the major categories making it the favourite. That said, The Father's translation from stage to screen may be difficult to resist for the screenwriters voting here.
What The Father achieves is fantastic, showcasing a unique perspective in an incredibly creative and thoughtful way. i'm thinking of ending things and Summer of 85 warrant an appearance here but my loyalties would still lie with The Father.
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BEST FILM EDITING
Nominated: The Father / Nomadland / Promising Young Woman / Sound of Metal / The Trial of the Chicago 7
Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the two main competitors, with the former's run of victories from other ceremonies putting it slightly ahead.
The Father's editing aids the storytelling in such a profound way that it should be walking this race. In a similar way, i'm thinking of ending things also uses editing to play with the idea of perception and deserves recognition in Film Editing.
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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominated: Judas and the Black Messiah / Mank / News of the World / Nomadland / The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Nomadland is a film of such immense beauty that it losing here is unimaginable.
Minari absence here is a surprise, packed with such rich and gorgeous imagery.
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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominated: Onward / Over The Moon / A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon / Soul / Wolfwalkers.
In a move that will shock no one, Disney Pixar will pick up their eleventh award for Soul.
Wolfwalkers is my winner, however.
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BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Nominated: Another Round / Better Days / Collective / The Man Who Sold His Skin / Quo Vadis, Aida?
No one has really entertained the notion that a film other than Another Round is winning here, given its shock appearance in the Best Director category.
And rightly so, Another Round is fantastic. Summer of 85 would probably pip past it, had the French film been shortlisted.
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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominated: Collective / Crip Camp / The Mole Agent / The Octopus Teacher / Time
The Octopus Teacher will swim to a win after scooping up a number of wins across award season.
Time would be my winner here, a beautifully stitched tapestry of a woman fighting for the release of her husband from a 60 year prison sentence. Except Time, my documentary line-up would look entirely different: A Secret Love, Boys State, Disclosure (my winner) and Welcome to Chechnya are disappointing omissions from this unusual category.
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BEST SCORE
Nominated: Da 5 Bloods / Mank / Minari / News of the World / Soul
Double nominees Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross are going to win for Soul, which they have composed alongside Jon Batiste.
Minari should be the runaway winner here, a tender and beautifully-composed piece that enriches every emotional beat in the film. Supernova and i'm thinking of ending things each deserved to make this list.
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BEST SONG
Nominated: Fight For You (Judas and the Black Messiah) / Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7) / Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga) / Io si (Seen) (The Life Ahead) / Speak Now (One Night in Miami...)
Speak Now (not the Taylor Swift song) is going to win One Night in Miami its only Oscar of the evening.
Only one of these songs had Rachel McAdams belting out a power ballad on a Eurovision stage in a beautiful gown, and for that reason, Husavik would have my vote.
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BEST SOUND
Nominated: Greyhound / Mank / News of the World / Soul / Sound of Metal.
The winner literally has 'sound' in the title.
Sound of Metal would get my vote, so viscerally charged on accounts of the fantastic sound editing and mixing. That said, Saint Maud's terrific use of silence, so atmospheric and suffocating, would have been a brilliant nominee.
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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
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Nominated: Love and Monsters / The Midnight Sky / Mulan / The One and Only Ivan / Tenet.
An unusual year for this category, given the dearth of usual blockbuster contenders given the pandemic stripping us of so many mammoth-budget releases. Tenet, the nominee most widely seen on the big screen after its theatrical release following the first coronavirus wave, should win this.
Tenet would be a very deserving winner. It's a shame that, given the circumstances, the Academy didn't look further outside the box and recognise documentary Welcome to Chechnya for its groundbreaking use of visual effects.
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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominated: The Father / Ma Rainey's Black Bottom / Mank / News of the World / Tenet.
Mank brings Old Hollywood to life in a way the Academy are going to find difficult to resist.
The Father uses its limited space to delve into the headspace of its main character and takes production design to the next level.
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BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominated: Emma. / Ma Rainey's Black Bottom / Mank / Mulan / Pinocchio.
It's a little too close to call between Ma Rainey and Mank, both period pieces also known as the Academy's bread and butter when it comes to this Costume Design.
Even still, of the period pieces nominated, Emma is my favourite: there's a playful vibrancy missing from the other two that adds a new dimension and suits the tone of the feature. It would be a lovely surprise for it to pull of an upset. What I would really like to know, however, is how you can not nominate Birds of Prey in this category - every Harley Quinn outfit is a total, total serve and I would like to record to show that I would be willing to commit a heist to find myself in possession of a number of those jackets.
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BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominated: Emma. / Hillbilly Elegy / Ma Rainey's Black Bottom / Mank / Pinocchio.
With this category notorious for giving an Oscar to some of the worst films ever nominated, Hillbilly Elegy could win. We'll give Ma Rainey's Black Bottom the edge though, reflecting both period and culture in its depiction of the titular Ma Rainey and her band.
Rachel McAdams didn't look RADIANT in Eurovision for you guys to pay her dust!
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Of the short films, my predictions are: The Letter Room (Live-Action), If Anything Happens I Love You (Animated) and A Love Song for Latasha (Documentary).
Feel free to share your predictions and enjoy the show!