It was decided early on that despite the world all but shutting down in 2020 that there would still be an Academy Awards celebrating the films released in the year that coronavirus came to stay. While much would change, mostly in terms of eligibility and theatrical windows, we would still celebrate the cinematic entertainment that saw us through the troubling year - albeit it a little later than usual. And so, the 93rd Academy Awards will be handed out on April 25th, and nominations coming tomorrow.
In keeping with tradition, I have thrown together a set of predictions for the major categories. If truth be told, this year's crop of hopefuls have underwhelmed me massively. Very few of the titles receiving award attention have excited or inspired me and even looking beyond that handful of hopefuls, filling out a ballot has not been as enjoyable (or easy) as usual. But, as my top 20 of 2020 indicated, there have been some bright spots and they are worth embracing.
Obviously, I've not seen everything released, The Father and its missing UK release date being a notable absentee. But, without further ado....
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BEST PICTURE
PREDICTIONS:
The Father
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Minari are all but locked in here, with the fight for the top accolade likely coming down to the former two. Mank, Ma Rainey and Promising Young Woman are the next three most likely titles to receive a Best Picture nomination, although if the latter missed, I will not be entirely shocked -- the Academy have skipped over female revenge titles like Gone Girl, Hustlers and (to an extent) Widows in the past, and doing so again wouldn't be the most surprising thing to happen.
One Night in Miami and The Father will round out what is most likely to be an eight-film line-up, but both have flown under the radar in recent weeks and could miss out on the day. My riskier bets in a top ten line-up would be News of the World and Hillbilly Elegy, neither of which received particularly glowing reception but are the exact type of film the older, whiter Academy love to champion (the latter in particular giving off massive Bohemian Rhapsody slash Green Book energy). Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal may put up a fight.
BALLOT:
Another Round
Babyteeth
Birds of Prey
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Kajillionaire
Misbehaviour
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Summer of 85
Supernova
Only two titles overlapping with the predicted nominees indicates my indifference towards this year's ceremony most clearly. It's a shame that the terrific, smaller, more independent titles filling my ballot haven't been championed in these more subdued year for content, with Supernova's struggle to connect with voters the most disappointing of the lot.
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BEST DIRECTOR
PREDICTIONS:
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
This seems like a pretty secure set. Sorkin, Zhao and Fincher are our top three, with Fennell and Chung in a pretty safe spot too. If anyone is to spoil, Regina King is waiting in the wings with her directorial debut, One Night in Miami.
BALLOT:
Charlie Kaufman, I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Francios Ozon, Summer of 85
Harry McQueen, Supernova
Miranda July, Kajillionaire
Once again, the women have outdone the men - and that's skipping over both Shannon Murphy's Babyteeth and Fennell's Promising Young Woman.
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BEST ACTOR
PREDICTION:
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Boseman, Hopkins and Oldman are in very strong positions in this otherwise poorly-contested category. Both Ahmed and Lindo face competition from Minari's Steven Yeun, with Lindo in the weakest position with Da 5 Bloods having been massively shut out this year. Nobody else is really in contention.
BALLOT:
Colin Firth, Supernova
Felix Lefebvre, Summer of 85
Henry Golding, Monsoon
Jesse Plemmons, I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Colin Firth and Mads Mikkelsen missing out stings. Both deliver some of their finest work in years, while Plemmons continues to burn a bright trail as one of the most reliable working actors today.
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BEST ACTRESS
PREDICTION:
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mulligan, McDormand and Davis are our three frontrunners, with Andra Day's surprise Golden Globe win likely to translate into an Oscar nomination. But, in my most 'no guts, no glory' prediction this year, I've put down Pike in place of Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman; Pike's win Globe victory came just as Oscar voting was about to kick off, while conversation around Pieces of a Woman continued to dwindle. Do I believe in my heart of hearts that Pike is about to receive her second nomination? Probably not. Am I predicting it just in case it does happen? Yes.
BALLOT:
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Eliza Scanlen, Babyteeth
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Jessie Buckley, I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot
Look, I just loved Babyteeth.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTION:
Alan Kim, Minari
Bill Murray, On The Rocks
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami
Sasha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
It's another tricky category to call, but Kaluuya, Odom Jr and Cohen are fairly secure. Murray and Kim are both outside bets, each representing opposite ends of the industry - one a beloved veteran playing to type, the other an exciting newcomer - but face little competition outside of Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods (will they nominate him a second time for a film whose buzz has faded?) and Paul Raci for Sound of Metal (who has missed in important precursors). Again, it's a riskier prediction but we'll see.
BALLOT:
Alan Kim, Minari
Ben Mendelsohn, Babyteeth
Benjamin Volsin, Summer of 85
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Supernova really has been ROBBED.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTION:
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman, The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Frankly, Best Supporting Actress is a mess. In what is the most difficult category to call, I'd describe no one as safe. Precursors have been unhelpful and there's no clear consensus amongst voters; heck, even two once-frontrunners, Amanda Seyfried for Mank and Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman, looks set to miss out on a nomination. It is all over the place, with other names in contention including Helena Zengel for News of the World and Dominique Fishback for Judas and the Black Messiah, hoping to rise in a murky category.
BALLOT:
Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
Essie Davis, Babyteeth
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Misbehaviour
Toni Collette, I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Why isn't the I'm Thinking of Ending Things cast dominating this?
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