As the clock ticks down to the 92nd Academy Awards, our minds turn to predicting the winners. Some categories are locked, some have turned into a two-horse race and others are much more open. Everything is still to play for Best Picture, and while it may seem like a fight to the line between 1917 and Parasite, spoilers like Jojo Rabbit and Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood are lurking.
For the third year, I've been running a Best Picture experiment to explore whether the popular vote and the preferential ballot offer us different winners. That theory has been proven wrong twice now, but will a third run change all that? I've had 83 rankings submitted to me, and we'll use them to investigate whether the winner changes depending on the style of voting used.
- - - - - - -
POPULAR VOTE:
The results are in and... you guys REALLY love Parasite. Here's how your number one votes shook out.
1. Parasite (40 votes)
2. 1917 (10 votes)
3. Marriage Story (8 votes)
4=. The Irishman (7 votes)
4=. Little Women (7 votes)
4=. Once Upon a Time.... in Hollywood (7 votes)
7. Jojo Rabbit (4 votes)
8=. Joker (0 votes)
8=. Ford v Ferrari (0 votes)
- - - - - - -
PREFERENTIAL/INSTANT RUN-OFF VOTING:
In the current era of voting, the Best Picture winner needs 50% of votes. If it's not achieved in the first round of voting, the film receiving the lowest number of first-place votes is excluded and their ballot is redistributed to the highest-ranked film still in contention. This is done until one film reaches that 50% threshold.
With 8469 voters in the Academy, one film would need to receive 4,235 ballots to win (assuming everyone submitted a ballot). Bless it, to be named our Best Picture winner, we need 42 people to have ranked the film first.
Parasite just misses the 42 votes needed for Best Picture, by two votes.
- - - - -
ROUND TWO:
Receiving no first-place votes, Joker and Ford v Ferrari are automatically discounted, and Jojo Rabbit is gone too. Jojo's four votes are distributed to the highest-ranked film in contention.
Two for Marriage Story. One for Parasite. One for 1917.
UPDATED LEADERBOARD:
1. Parasite (41 votes)
2. 1917 (11 votes)
3. Marriage Story (10 votes)
4=. The Irishman (7 votes)
4=. Little Women (7 votes)
4=. Once Upon a Time.... in Hollywood (7 votes)
No film has reached the 42 votes needed, as Parasite is short by one. We go to another round.
- - - - -
ROUND THREE:
Receiving 7 votes apiece, Little Women, The Irishman and Hollywood are the next films out. Their twenty-ones votes are given to the highest-ranked film still in contention:
14 for Parasite. Five for Marriage Story. Two for 1917.
UPDATED LEADERBOARD:
1. Parasite (55 votes)
2. Marriage Story (15 votes)
3. 1917 (13 votes)
PARASITE WINS!
- - - - -
So, Parasite won both our popular vote and preferential ballot. I honestly didn't think it would need six films to be knocked out to win, but a champion is a champion.
Some fun facts:
- When The Irishman and Hollywood were knocked out, eleven out of their fourteen votes went to Parasite. Little Women's ballots were more evenly distributed between Parasite and Marriage Story.
- 1917 only picked up three votes from 25 ballots.
- Parasite was the only film not to be ranked last.
- Joker ranked last on 38 ballots.
- Parasite would also win on a weighted ranking. Joker would also come last on a weighted ranking.
- The Irishman, Hollywood and Little Women remained level throughout, but the latter was more favoured on a weighted ranking, receiving 30 second or third place votes, compared to Irishman's 16 and Hollywood's 18.
- - - - -
I also asked you your favourite film not nominated for Best Picture. Some of you, quite cheekily I might add!, answered more than one film - but the most popular answers were:
The Farewell (17), Uncut Gems (13), Knives Out (13), Booksmart (8), Portrait of a Lady on Fire (6), Hustlers (5). Avengers: Endgame, Midsommar and Us all received four votes.
Other titles mentioned: Rocketman, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, The Peanut Butter Falcon, Honey Boy, A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood, The Lego Movie 2, Toy Story 4, Waves, The Lighthouse Pain and Glory and John Wick 3.
And a big congratulations to Cats, who also got a mention. I'm sure that will negate its 9 Razzie nominations!
Enjoy Oscar night.