2019-20 award season is firmly underway with the nominations 92nd Academy Awards almost upon us. As everyone crosses their fingers hoping their favourites get some attention, predictions are flying left, right and centre, so allow me to throw mine into the ring. These predictions are based on a combination of award season patterns, critic group trends and, frankly, gut instinct.
And, because I've still not received a letter inviting me to The Academy, I'll have to share my personal ballot here too! There are a handful of films I'm yet to see - of note, Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood which I'm eagerly anticipating - that won't make their mark on my ballot but I may potentially update this as we tick off some contenders.
Without further ado...
BEST PICTURE
Without further ado...
BEST PICTURE
PREDICTIONS: (Ranked by likelihood)
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
1917
Parasite
Joker
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Little Women
Going into nomination morning, the three favourites for the top accolade are Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood, 1917 and Parasite, and it will take something huge to take any of them down before the big day. Joker and The Irishman aren't too far behind in my eyes, and would likely make up the five nominees up until 2008. These are the same five nominated by BAFTA.
In the preferential era though, there's space for up to ten nominees at the Oscars - Jojo Rabbit is likely to be embraced here by the same body who last year gave the top prize to Green Book, and Marriage Story, although fading in recent weeks, still has its vocal supporters. Most years give us eight (sometimes nine but never ten) nominees, which leaves us with one, perhaps two, slots to fill: mostly likely contenders are Ford v Ferrari and Little Women, with Bombshell, Knives Out and Uncut Gems (which I think people are greatly underestimating) on the peripheral. Let me go with Ford and Women, predicting a year of nine.
BALLOT:
1917
Booksmart
The Farewell
Honey Boy
Hustlers
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Parasite
Wild Rose
BEST ACTOR
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A slight adjustment of my top ten movies of 2019. All absolutely magnificent.
BEST DIRECTOR
PREDICTIONS: (Ranked by likelihood)
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
Sam Mendes - 1917
Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Todd Phillips - Joker
So many categories this year have four slots all be certain and a battle between a handful of hopefuls to fill the final spot. In Director, Tarantino, Mendes, Joon-Ho and Scorsese seem as safe as possible, with that last position coming down to Phillips (my prediction, in line with BAFTA's crop), Greta Gerwig for Little Women, Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story, Taika Watiti for Jojo Rabbit and - call me stir-crazy but - the Safdie Brothers for Uncut Gems.
BALLOT: (Alphabetical)
Alma Har'el - Honey Boy
Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite
Lorene Scafaria - Hustlers
Greta Gerwig - Little Women
Sam Mendes - 1917
On my own ballot, the women thrive - Alma Har'el, Lorene Scafaria and Greta Gerwig all delivered stellar features this year, radiating with sensitivity, care and warmth, respectively, while Bong Joon-Ho crafted a genuine, contemporary masterpiece in Parasite. While preferring Knives Out to 1917, you cannot deny the seamless technical brilliance of Sam Mendes' 1917, who fills my last spot over Rian Johnson. (I'm sorry, Rian). Let me also shout out Noah Baumbach, Lulu Wang, Olivia Wilde and Tom Harper for their excellent work on my top ten pictures of the year.
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BEST ACTOR
PREDICTIONS: (Ranked by likelihood)
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Leonardo Dicaprio - Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
Robert De Niro - The Irishman
Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems
Phoenix and Driver are total locks with Dicaprio in a distant third. I'm betting on Robert De Niro too, although his position is in flux more than ever. More so than any other category, that fifth spot will be fought to the death - Globe winner Taron Egerton, critic favourite Antonio Banderas, four-time nominee Christain Bale and veteran name but never nominated Jonathan Pryce are all squabbling for that spot. But my biggest no guts, no glory of these prediction is Adam Sandler turning up here for Uncut Gems: the critic groups embraced him, the film peaked right as voting was beginning and its celebrity supporters have made their voices heard. And heck, the Academy is nominating everything else I hated this year, so why not throw in a Sandler nom!
BALLOT:
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory
Brad Pitt - Ad Astra
Noah Jupe - Honey Boy
Timothee Chalamet - The King
Of all the likely nominees, Driver should be walking this; his work in Marriage Story is masterful. Pitt's stunningly internalised work in Ad Astra is infinitely better than the work he will be nominated for this year, while Banderas digs into similarly paternal emotional territory. Perhaps my bias is showing but I thought Chalamet was terrific in Netflix's The King, while Noah Jupe gave the best young performance since Jacob Tremblay in Room - Jupe is my actor pick of the year, actually.
BEST ACTRESS
PREDICTIONS: (Ranked by likelihood)
Renee Zellweger - Judy
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Zellweger is the clear frontrunner and Johansson and Theron solidify the top three. Ronan, beloved by the Academy, should be pretty safe in the line-up. Globe winner Awkwafina and the critic's winner Lupita Nyong'o are two names banded around for the final spot, but I'm confident Cynthia Erivo's interpretation of Harriet Tubman gets in: the Oscars love a biopic and Harriet is an American icon.
BALLOT:
Beanie Feldstein - Booksmart
Jessie Buckley - Wild Rose
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Tatiana Maslany - Pink Wall
Buckley delivered my favourite performance of the year in Wild Rose and her BAFTA nomination filled my heart with joy. Ronan and Johannson both deserve their place in the line-up for their wonderful performances, while Tatiana Maslany stunned in the small but powerful Pink Wall. Beanie Feldstein fills my final spot for the depth and hilarity she brought to Booksmart.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTIONS: (Ranked by likelihood)
Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
Brad is the frontrunner of this lacklustre category for his Hollywood role, while the two Irishmen trail behind. Both Tom Hanks and Anthony Hopkins could be their film's only hope beyond the Adapted Screenplay category but I waver on both; the only problem is there's not many waiting in the wings. Many are backing Parasite's Song Kang Ho but I can't quite see it - that film's cast is so uniformly excellent across the board that it's hard to name one sole standout, but if there's a category to do it, maybe it's Supporting Actor.
BALLOT:
Archie Yates - Jojo Rabbit
Chris Evans - Knives Out
Shia LaBeouf - Honey Boy
Song Kang Ho - Parasite
Timothee Chalamet - Little Women
Timothee Chalamet for Little Women and Shia LaBeouf for Honey Boy are two names that both deserved far more from Oscar season, especially in such an underwhelming category - separating the two is impossible. Kang Ho is excellent in Parasite, although anyone from the cast would be deserving of a nomination. Yates is such a comedic scene-stealer in Jojo, lighting up the screen in his every appearance, while Chris Evans really surprised me in Knives Out.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTIONS: (Ranked by likelihood)
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Laura Dern's name has been etched on the Best Supporting Actress trophy for months now, with Jennifer Lopez being unable to turn the tide. Beyond those two, Johannson could very well be a double nomination this year with Jojo here, while Robbie will likely get in for Bombshell - although seeing her name next to Hollywood on nomination morning would not surprise me in the slightest. Florence Pugh is likely to round out the category, with Little Women a stronger contender than Zhao Shuzhen's The Farewell, Annete Benning's The Report and Kathy Bates' Richard Jewell.
BALLOT:
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Julie Walters - Wild Rose
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell
Probably my favourite batch of the lot, these women all enriched their respective films in a smaller capacity. Lopez would be my pick of the lot, if only to celebrate the fur coats she wore in Hustlers, while I could feasibly fill the majority of it with Little Women stars alone.
Predictions for the rest...
