Where has the time gone? It's been about a year since the 2017-18 award season was underway and the divisive discussions over Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri seems like a light breeze in comparison to the tornado of controversies agitating this especially brutal season.
With every man, woman and child engrossed in the carnival of cinematic cheering dishing out predictions, I have assembled my thoughts on each of the major categories. Formulated through extremely basic industry analysis, award season patterns and, quite frankly, gut reactions, my predictions attempt to make sense out of a particularly perplexing year, set in stone so I can't fake a 'i knew that was going to happen!' reaction. It will entirely ignore what is and isn't eligible (beyond "released in 2018 in the US") because I make up my own rules.
Alongside that, you get to see my own personal shortlist and ballot: an entirely self-indulgent exercise where I can outline my favourites in each major category. Now, because UK distributors suck, some popular titles - Destroyer, On The Basis of Sex and Boy Erased - are yet to receive a release on this side of the pond and so do not factor into my own personal shortlist.
So settle down with a snack of your choosing and perusal my predictions and personal shortlist for the Oscars, whose nominations arrive with us tomorrow (Tuesday 22nd January). Maybe even check back when all is revealed so we can laugh together at how much I botched these predictions.
With every man, woman and child engrossed in the carnival of cinematic cheering dishing out predictions, I have assembled my thoughts on each of the major categories. Formulated through extremely basic industry analysis, award season patterns and, quite frankly, gut reactions, my predictions attempt to make sense out of a particularly perplexing year, set in stone so I can't fake a 'i knew that was going to happen!' reaction. It will entirely ignore what is and isn't eligible (beyond "released in 2018 in the US") because I make up my own rules.
Alongside that, you get to see my own personal shortlist and ballot: an entirely self-indulgent exercise where I can outline my favourites in each major category. Now, because UK distributors suck, some popular titles - Destroyer, On The Basis of Sex and Boy Erased - are yet to receive a release on this side of the pond and so do not factor into my own personal shortlist.
So settle down with a snack of your choosing and perusal my predictions and personal shortlist for the Oscars, whose nominations arrive with us tomorrow (Tuesday 22nd January). Maybe even check back when all is revealed so we can laugh together at how much I botched these predictions.
BEST PICTURE:
Predictions:
Vice
Ballot:
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
For the past few years, Best Picture has been decided through a preferential ballot. While we typically see eight or nine films nominated for the ceremony's most prestigious award, that number can range from as little as five to as many as ten. This year's race has roughly twelve titles in contention, two of which are leading the pack: A Star Is Born and Roma are the films to beat at this moment in time. Green Book, The Favourite and BlacKkKlansman are as good as nailed on, as is Black Panther in an extraordinary turn and defeat of genre-bias. Bohemian Rhapsody's shock emergence from mixed-negative critical reception to win the Globe means it's an almost-certainty, as is Vice; no matter how divisive it is proving to be, it will likely receive enough passion votes to catapult it into the line-up.
I think those will be our lot -- but what if we stretch to 10? If Beale Street Could Talk has not become the major player it was expected to be while First Man failed to launch itself into the season, - but the films are coming from two beloved 'new' directors (Moonlight's Barry Jenkins and La La Land's Damien Chazelle) and will pick up support elsewhere: First Man in the below-the-line technicals, Beale Street in Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay, perhaps strengthening their chances after a rocky season. Mary Poppins Returns faded out of the conversation as quickly as it entered it and A Quiet Place has shocked in enough places for it to be genuinely considered as a potential nominee. Maybe Eighth Grade shocks?
Unless I am mistaken, voters get five spaces on their ballots for Best Picture; Hereditary has been floating around mine for a while, but there's was only room for one 'indulgent' vote: Paddington 2 deserves Best Picture but we'll save that for another post. Otherwise, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Favourite and First Man would make up my shortlist. Shoutout to Widows -- so close, but not close enough, my friend.
BEST DIRECTOR
I think those will be our lot -- but what if we stretch to 10? If Beale Street Could Talk has not become the major player it was expected to be while First Man failed to launch itself into the season, - but the films are coming from two beloved 'new' directors (Moonlight's Barry Jenkins and La La Land's Damien Chazelle) and will pick up support elsewhere: First Man in the below-the-line technicals, Beale Street in Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay, perhaps strengthening their chances after a rocky season. Mary Poppins Returns faded out of the conversation as quickly as it entered it and A Quiet Place has shocked in enough places for it to be genuinely considered as a potential nominee. Maybe Eighth Grade shocks?
Unless I am mistaken, voters get five spaces on their ballots for Best Picture; Hereditary has been floating around mine for a while, but there's was only room for one 'indulgent' vote: Paddington 2 deserves Best Picture but we'll save that for another post. Otherwise, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Favourite and First Man would make up my shortlist. Shoutout to Widows -- so close, but not close enough, my friend.
BEST DIRECTOR
Predictions:
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Ballot:
Ari Aster, Hereditary
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Essentially a six-horse race, Cooper and Cuaron seem concrete and Lee isn't too far out of that frame. The remaining two spots are being fought for by Farrelly, McKay and Lanthimos; if someone misses out, it will probably be Lanthimos, whose idiosyncratic style may alienate more traditional voters. As unremarkable as Farrelly's work is, he beat Lanthimos to a Golden Globe nomination, and McKay is well-loved within the circle for Lanthimos to steal away that spot.
Damien Chazelle should be walking this race but the general indifference towards First Man has devastatingly extinguished his chances, while Marielle Heller is thoroughly deserving of all the attention she isn't receiving for so tremendously balancing Can You Ever Forgive Me?. Ari Aster easily made the strongest feature-length debut of the year with Hereditary, while Lanthimos and Lee registered career-highs with their work.
BEST ACTOR
Predictions:
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Ballot:
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Ryan Gosling - First Man
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
Three locks in place: Bale, Cooper and Malek are all-but-guaranteed a nomination on Tuesday. Like its female equivalent, it's a case of the fourth spot - Mortensen - looking pretty safe but not a complete guarantee - maybe a controversy pertaining to the star's use of racial slurs has harmed his chances somewhat? Still, there are a few people teetering on the edge that must overcome various obstacles to take a nomination: John David Washington looks like the next-in-line and is predicted by many to take Ethan Hawke's spot who, despite performing well with critics, hasn't been as well-received by the precursors.
That Ryan Gosling isn't a lock to be nominated, nevermind walking away with gold he so richly deserves, is possibly the biggest disappointment of Oscar season. His stunning-measured, carefully-implosive work in First Man is career-best work and he'd top my personal ballot, rounded out by Cooper, Mortensen, Washington and Nick Robinson, who will be overlooked due to genre-bias but is superb in coming-of-age teen rom-com Love, Simon.
BEST ACTRESS
Predictions:
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Ballot:
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Toni Collette - Hereditary
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
For a while now, it's been a battle for the fifth and final spot in the Best Actress race. Close, Colman and Gaga seem locked and many have McCarthy pegged for a nomination too - I'm a little more sceptical on that one, as it strikes me as the year's 'turned up at all precursors but tripped at the final hurdle'. The only problem is that we're struggling to fill one spot, nevermind two; there's plenty of talent in the pool but no one has a clear path to the nomination.
Mary Poppins Returns' Emily Blunt (once fifth-spot-favourite until a shock BAFTA miss), Widows' Viola Davis (retired from the conversation until surprise BAFTA nod), Toni Collette for Hereditary (big with critics circle but ignored by the major precursor) and Nicole Kidman in Destroyer (a transformative turn in a film that has suffered due to poor campaigning) are all waiting in the wings. But it is Roma's Yalitza Aparicio that I'm putting all my chips on; the Mexican-language film has its eyes firmly set on Best Picture and the Academy's love for the film may extend to Aparicio, despite no major wins to speak of.
Personally speaking, McCarthy, Colette and Colman are my three favourites of the year and I would adore the indescribable Rosamund Pike (pitch-perfect in A Private War) and the dazzling Emily Blunt to round out the five. This category could be filled out three times over with talent still missing out. It's been an exceptional year for lead female performances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Personally speaking, McCarthy, Colette and Colman are my three favourites of the year and I would adore the indescribable Rosamund Pike (pitch-perfect in A Private War) and the dazzling Emily Blunt to round out the five. This category could be filled out three times over with talent still missing out. It's been an exceptional year for lead female performances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predictions:
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Adam Driver - BlacKkklansman
Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan - Black Panther
Ballot:
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Hugh Grant - Paddington 2
Alex Wolff - Hereditary
If we're continuing the rule of three, I'm rather confident that Ali, Elliott and Grant will all receive nominations in the Supporting Actor category. They have continually been the most-awarded contender all season long and Oscar should prove no different. It gets a little trickier from there out.
Michael B. Jordan could be the first superhero-nominated performance since Heath Ledger posthumous-win as The Joker for The Dark Knight and I suspect that it will be at the fall of Chalamet, Beautiful Boy's sole hope. Similarly, Driver is on rocky ground for no reason I can exactly pinpoint other than to say it seems to be a *surprise* everytime he turns up, despite making waves across the smaller critic groups and bigger precursors alike. Sam Rockwell could return after his win last year, this time for Vice. Ultimately, it's a four-way fight for the final two spots.
Grant and Chalamet are my clear winners in this category and despite standing next-to-no-chance of attention, I'd love to see Hugh Grant and Alex Wolff join them for two very different performances in Paddington 2 and Hereditary, respectively. My fifth position has caused endless nightmares, finally settling on Ali over Nicholas Hoult in The Favourite -- Ali is the first or second best thing about this film; Hoult is fourth, after the three women. I'll probably change my mind before nominations are announced, mind.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predictions:
Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Ballot:
Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place
Claire Foy - First Man
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
The Favourite's two supporting ladies - Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz - are getting in, alongside Amy Adams for Vice and Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. Claire Foy looks like a pretty confident bet too, although many are thinking that Emily Blunt turns up here instead, for her suspiciously-placed 'supporting' turn in A Quiet Place. Maybe Nicole Kidman's Globe and Critics Choice nominations get in here for Boy Erased, maybe Margot Robbie rides her BAFTA love for Mary Queen of Scots -- both seem unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
In a lovely, lovely world, Blake Lively would defy bias and pick up a nomination for her extraordinary turn in A Simple Favour. She joins Stone, Weisz, Foy and Blunt as my picks for the imaginary ballot.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predictions:
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
Ballot:
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
Love, Simon
Widows
That seems like a rather secure line-up. Some are suggesting Leave No Trace sneaks in - perhaps at the defeat of Black Panther if genre-bias raises its head - but Logan received a nomination last year and Leave No Trace confidence seems like a Film Twitter pipedream. First Man could roll up late to the party but that's *my* pipedream.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? and BlacKkKlansman are personal 'musts' and my love for First Man, Widows and award-season-untypical Love, Simon rounds out my five, just ahead of Wildlife, If Beale Street Could Talk and A Star Is Born. Given a pretty weak showing last year, excluding Call My By Your Name, Adapted Screenplay is now packed with an abundance of riches.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predictions:
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Ballot:
The Favourite should walk this category each and every year and that it's not in a comparatively poor year for Original Screenplay is pretty terrible. Green Book's screenplay has picked up major love and looks secure, alongside Adam McKay's Vice. Despite being in the foreign-language, a miss for Roma would be a surprise. That leaves A24's First Reformed and Eighth Grade to fight it out in a battle of old (Paul Schrader is well-loved among writers) and new (Bo Burnham's feature-length debut) -- I'm pretty confident old will triumph.
My love for The Favourite is known and nothing else really comes close -- but I could never leave a ballot blank and so Tully, Hereditary, A Quiet Place and Private Life would all get a mention. They're all great - but they're not The (or my) Favourite.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
BEST ANIMATED FILM
It's a pretty clad-iron set here, although an appearance from Early Man - a claymation project, for which there is a ton of love for within the animation branch - would not be a total surprise, replacing Ralph or Mirai.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Predictions:
Burning
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters
Ballot:
Cold War
Roma
Revenge
Shoplifters
Utoya: July 22
Filling out this category beyond Roma is simply out of necessity because the Foreign-Language race is already wrapped up. Cold War and Shoplifters are assurances at the very least -- both of which I would favour to the eventual winner.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Predictions:
Mirai
Ballot:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks The Internet
Smallfoot
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
It's a pretty clad-iron set here, although an appearance from Early Man - a claymation project, for which there is a ton of love for within the animation branch - would not be a total surprise, replacing Ralph or Mirai.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BEST SONG
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predictions:
Free Solo
Minding The Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Ballot:
Free Solo
McQueen
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Whitney
BEST SCORE
Predictions:
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Ballot:
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Hereditary
If Beale Street Could Talk
Paddington 2
First Man
Hereditary
If Beale Street Could Talk
Paddington 2
BlacKkKlansman is the only real challenger to the five predicted unless The Academy really go to bat for A Quiet Place.
Special shoutout to Widows and Mary Queen of Scots, both coming from big name composers who have unfortunately struggled with their respective films receiving little momentum. They only just missed my shortlist, slightly behind Hereditary and Paddington 2.
BEST SONG
Predictions:
All The Stars, Black Panther
I'll Fight, RBG
Revelation, Boy Erased
Shallow, A Star Is Born
Trip A Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns
I'll Fight, RBG
Revelation, Boy Erased
Shallow, A Star Is Born
Trip A Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns
Ballot:
Always Remember Us This Way, A Star Is Born
Can You Imagine That?, Mary Poppins Returns
A Cover Is Not The Book, Mary Poppins Returns
I'll Never Love Again, A Star Is Born
Strawberries & Cigarettes, Love, Simon
Can You Imagine That?, Mary Poppins Returns
A Cover Is Not The Book, Mary Poppins Returns
I'll Never Love Again, A Star Is Born
Strawberries & Cigarettes, Love, Simon
Shallow is all but certain to walk away with the trophy as the sole contender for A Star Is Born: it's a smart choice to prevent vote-splitting but I cannot help but feel that they're better songs on the soundtrack. The biggest question here is whether Mary Poppins Returns receives one or two nominations -- The Place Where The Lost Things Go is next in line (although most have it pegged ahead of Trip A Little Light Fantastic) and would take the spot from Revelation. All The Stars and I'll Fight appear safe.
BEST FILM EDITING
Predictions:
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Ballot:
The Favourite
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
Hereditary
Widows
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predictions:
The Favourite
First Man
If Beale Street CouldTalk
Roma
A Star Is Born
First Man
If Beale Street CouldTalk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Ballot:
The Favourite
First Man
Hereditary
If Beale Street Could Talk
Wildlife
First Man
Hereditary
If Beale Street Could Talk
Wildlife
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predictions:
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star Is Born
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star Is Born
Ballot:
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Favourite
First Man
Paddington 2
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
First Man
Paddington 2
Mary Poppins Returns
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predictions:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Ballot:
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Mary Poppins Returns
A Simple Favour
The Favourite
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Mary Poppins Returns
A Simple Favour
Predictions:
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Ballot:
Avengers: Infinity War
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Paddington 2
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predictions:
Black Panther
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Ballot:
The Favourite
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predictions:
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born
Ballot:
The Favourite
First Man
Hereditary
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Hereditary
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Predictions:
Black Panther
Border
Vice
Border
Vice
Ballot:
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots