Last year, I introduced a theory: that the popular vote and preferential vote (instant run-off) would offer different winners for the Academy Awards' top accolade. You proved me wrong, with The Shape of Water topping both voting systems -- and the Academy's, when it went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.
As someone who doesn't like being wrong, this year saw The Rematch. I asked you to rank the nominees - Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born and Vice - one through eight in order of preference, to determine the results. 100 of you voted, hitting the maximum response limit I wasn't aware existed, and your winners have been selected.
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POPULAR VOTE:
Until 2009, the Academy utilised a popular vote system to determine their Best Picture. Simply put, the film with the most votes won. Using that system, the results were as followed:
1. The Favourite (29 votes)
2=. Roma (22 votes)
2=. A Star Is Born (22 votes)
4. BlacKkKlansman (12 votes)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (6 votes)
6=. Black Panther (4 votes)
6=. Green Book (4 votes)
8. Vice (1 vote)
The Favourite won the popular vote by 7 votes. It remained the leader for the majority of the run, only overtaken (twice) by Roma, but quickly regaining ground. A last-minute burst for A Star Is Born put it joint-second with Roma, despite the latter leading by some distance until the final day.
Every film received at least one first-place, unlike last year where two nominees - The Post and Darkest Hour - finished without a single vote.
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INSTANT RUN-OFF:
If you need more details on how instant run-off/preferential voting works, I'd recommend this visual, step-by-step guide. In short, voters rank the eight films. The film with the fewest votes is knocked out after each round if a majority is not found; when a person's first-place pick is removed, their vote is redistributed to the highest-ranked film still in contention, until a majority is found. With 100 votes counted, the winner needs to receive 51 votes in run-off voting to be named Best Picture.
Here's how it unfolded.
1st Round:
The Favourite (29), Roma (22), A Star Is Born (22), BlacKkKlansman (12), Bohemian Rhapsody (6), Black Panther (4), Green Book (4), Vice (1).
Using the results from above (a couple of people selected different number one picks in question one than they did on the ranked ballot in question two: for simplicity - and, frankly, time, I ignored this and their ballot positioning), Vice was knocked out first with just one vote.
That vote went to Green Book, as the second-ranked film on the ballot.
2nd Round:
The Favourite (29), Roma (22), A Star Is Born (22), BlacKkKlansman (12), Bohemian Rhapsody (6), Green Book (5) , Black Panther (4), Vice
With Green Book overtaking, Black Panther is knocked out next. Its votes are distributed to the next highest-ranked film still in contention: The Favourite and Roma receive one apiece, A Star Is Born receives two.
3rd Round:
The Favourite (30), A Star Is Born (24), Roma (23), BlacKkKlansman (12), Bohemian Rhapsody (6), Green Book (5) , Black Panther, Vice
With no majority found, the next lowest film - Green Book - is knocked out and its votes are distributed to the next highest-ranked film in contention. BlacKkKlansman takes three of the five, with The Favourite and A Star Is Born receiving one each.
4th Round:
The Favourite (31), A Star Is Born (25), Roma (23), BlacKkKlansman (15), Bohemian Rhapsody (6), Green Book , Black Panther, Vice
No majority found. Bohemian Rhapsody is removed next, with just six votes. It receives no additional votes across three knockout rounds. All but one of the six votes go to A Star Is Born, BlacKkKlansman picks up the other.
5th Round:
The Favourite (31), A Star Is Born (30), Roma (23), BlacKkKlansman (16), Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, Black Panther, Vice
No film has received at least 51 votes to secure Best Picture, so BlacKkKlansman, on 16, is removed next. 11 votes go to The Favourite, 4 to A Star Is Born and 1 to Roma.
6th Round:
The Favourite (42), A Star Is Born (34), Roma (24), BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, Black Panther, Vice
As the lowest film still in contention, Roma finishes in third place. With just two remaining, we are simply looking at the ballot to see whether The Favourite or A Star Is Born is ranked higher. Of Roma's votes, all but two go to The Favourite.
7th Round:
The Favourite (64), A Star Is Born (36), Roma, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, Black Panther, Vice
With 64 votes to A Star Is Born's 36, The Favourite takes Best Picture on the preferential voting system.
You guys love proving me wrong, huh? Have we predicted The Academy's 2018-19 Best Picture again?
Here are some fascinating nuggets and relationships from the preferential experiment:
- Bohemian Rhapsody supporters also backed A Star Is Born.
- Roma supporters also backed The Favourite.
- Green Book/Vice/Bohemian Rhapsody were almost always ranked together, be it on the high end or the low end.
- Despite finishing fourth, BlacKkKlansman was the only film to escape without a last-place vote. Every other film landed there at least twice, although Bohemian Rhapsody (47) and Vice (27) received the most. Black Panther received 10.
- The Favourite landed in the top half of 89% of the rankings, with 36 second-place votes. It was followed by BlacKkKlansman with 79%.
- Bohemian Rhapsody landed in the bottom half of 89% of the ballots, followed by Vice's 88%
- The Favourite would also win out in a weighted-ranking system.
Here's how the votes were spread:
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Who would you nominate for Best Picture?
As a bonus, I asked you to write-in who you would like to have seen nominated for Best Picture.
First Man received 25 mentions, followed by If Beale Street Could Talk with 13 mentions.
The following received at least five votes: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Hereditary, Eight Grade, Widows.
29 films were mentioned, 16 receiving just one vote apiece.
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Come back next year when I'll inevitable re-run this on the hope of one day, finally, being proven right! Enjoy Oscar night!