After an exhausting few months, the 91st Academy Awards will draw this tumultuous award season to a close on Sunday evening. With more controversies than there were female nominees (probably), this celebratory stretch has featured more ups and downs than Lady Gaga's long note in Shallow, and it's a wonder that we made it to the star-studded ceremony in one piece. But with just hours to go, I've sat down to make my predictions for the big event, speaking it into existence (read: posting it on my blog) so I can't backtrack later.
Excluding the shorts (which I will eventually get round to), I have seen all but three of the features nominated, so I have also dropped my own preferences as a cheeky extra.
Come back tomorrow to read the crossover event to end all crossover events, too!
Come back tomorrow to read the crossover event to end all crossover events, too!
BEST PICTURE:
What a mixed crop, eh? Let's tackle it.
A Best Picture nomination for Black Panther will be seen as big-enough recognition and will likely find itself chucked out early on given the instant run-off voting begins, along with Vice which is far too divisive to take the top prize. Three months ago, nobody expected Bohemian Rhapsody to have made it this far yet here we are; cautiously, I'm going to discount it but I fear its strength.
That leaves us the top five. A Star Is Born peaked too early - the danger of being the frontrunner, a fate that befell La La Land and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - and lost momentum, so without Director and Editing nominations, it's unlikely to resurge now. The Favourite has been a solid performer all season long but it failed to turn the tide at the BAFTAs two weeks ago, winning a hearty handful but unable to claim the top prize.
That leaves us with BlacKkKlansman, Green Book and Roma. Truth be told, I think BlacKkKlansman is in the weakest position of the three; there doesn't seem to be too much enthusiasm for it, although the nature of the preferential ballot may see it snatch a victory. Even still, I think it comes down to Roma and Green Book: two very different films, with very different ideals. Roma's an emotionally-deep, technically-astonishing black-and-white, Mexican-language feature crafted by an acclaimed director and released through Netflix; Green Book is a "kind" portrait of racism, framed in a friendly, crowd-pleasing way that will appeal to older voters.
The Academy has made a determined effort to diversify the face of its voters; that bodes well for Roma. Green Book has faced many controversies, a lot of it pertaining to its mishandling of racism and campaigning faux-pas. People have taken exception to it; in any other year, it could land flat-out bottom on many ballots -- but this year boasts Vice and Bohemian as similarly unpopular picks. Maybe it's not as far down on the ballots as we expect?
Still, Roma has this one in my eyes. The only thing that holds me back is its status as a Netflix Original (and that it's foreign-language). But The Academy has already granted it ten nominations, so the love is clear -- they even backed it Supporting Actress when no one else did. They've leaned progressive in recent years - The Shape of Water and Moonlight aren't your typical Best Picture winners - and Roma has swept with the critic groups and the guilds with equal gusto. It would be an upset if Roma fell here but again, stranger things have happened.
Personally thinking, I strongly believe that Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man should both be here and their absence is, not to sound dramatic, very upsetting. Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk and Hereditary should also have nominations, but alas.
A Best Picture nomination for Black Panther will be seen as big-enough recognition and will likely find itself chucked out early on given the instant run-off voting begins, along with Vice which is far too divisive to take the top prize. Three months ago, nobody expected Bohemian Rhapsody to have made it this far yet here we are; cautiously, I'm going to discount it but I fear its strength.
That leaves us the top five. A Star Is Born peaked too early - the danger of being the frontrunner, a fate that befell La La Land and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - and lost momentum, so without Director and Editing nominations, it's unlikely to resurge now. The Favourite has been a solid performer all season long but it failed to turn the tide at the BAFTAs two weeks ago, winning a hearty handful but unable to claim the top prize.
That leaves us with BlacKkKlansman, Green Book and Roma. Truth be told, I think BlacKkKlansman is in the weakest position of the three; there doesn't seem to be too much enthusiasm for it, although the nature of the preferential ballot may see it snatch a victory. Even still, I think it comes down to Roma and Green Book: two very different films, with very different ideals. Roma's an emotionally-deep, technically-astonishing black-and-white, Mexican-language feature crafted by an acclaimed director and released through Netflix; Green Book is a "kind" portrait of racism, framed in a friendly, crowd-pleasing way that will appeal to older voters.
The Academy has made a determined effort to diversify the face of its voters; that bodes well for Roma. Green Book has faced many controversies, a lot of it pertaining to its mishandling of racism and campaigning faux-pas. People have taken exception to it; in any other year, it could land flat-out bottom on many ballots -- but this year boasts Vice and Bohemian as similarly unpopular picks. Maybe it's not as far down on the ballots as we expect?
Still, Roma has this one in my eyes. The only thing that holds me back is its status as a Netflix Original (and that it's foreign-language). But The Academy has already granted it ten nominations, so the love is clear -- they even backed it Supporting Actress when no one else did. They've leaned progressive in recent years - The Shape of Water and Moonlight aren't your typical Best Picture winners - and Roma has swept with the critic groups and the guilds with equal gusto. It would be an upset if Roma fell here but again, stranger things have happened.
Personally thinking, I strongly believe that Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man should both be here and their absence is, not to sound dramatic, very upsetting. Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk and Hereditary should also have nominations, but alas.
WILL WIN: Roma
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MISSING: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Man
BEST DIRECTOR:
MISSING: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Man
BEST DIRECTOR:
Cuarón has this one. The trophy is already engraved. Cuarón IS Roma and matched with my belief that it'll take Picture too, there's no way he doesn't triumph here. Suggestions that they'll hand it to Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman feel like wishful thinking, or finding friction for the sake of it, and I'm convinced that they'll compensate him with an Adapted Screenplay win anyway. This is Cuarón's trophy.
Lanthimos' directorial brilliance leans mainstream in The Favourite while still maintaining his peculiarities and idiosyncrasies. Who else could slip a fisheye lens into a period drama?! Chazelle and Heller deserve to be here though for creating two very different, yet equally exemplary pieces of filmmaking.
Lanthimos' directorial brilliance leans mainstream in The Favourite while still maintaining his peculiarities and idiosyncrasies. Who else could slip a fisheye lens into a period drama?! Chazelle and Heller deserve to be here though for creating two very different, yet equally exemplary pieces of filmmaking.
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
SHOULD WIN: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
MISSING: Damien Chazelle, First Man & Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
MISSING: Damien Chazelle, First Man & Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST ACTRESS:
Unless Olivia Colman pulls off a stunning upset, Glenn Close has this in the bag. It's a great performance in a good film and her 'overdue' status will easily propel her to the win, helping The Academy settle a perceived debt.
McCarthy would win my vote for her extraordinary performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, playing a character that no one else could master as well as she does, although I'd be equally happy with Colman taking this for The Favourite. Rosamund Pike, A Private War, and Toni Collette, Hereditary, are unfortunately absent from the category due to poor campaigning efforts from the respective studios.
WILL WIN: Glenn Close, The Wife
SHOULD WIN: Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
MISSING: Toni Collette, Hereditary
BEST ACTOR:
Unless the controversies surrounding the film finally catch up with him at the final hurdle, Rami Malek will walk away with Best Actor for his performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. It's a transformative turn that the Academy frequently fall hook, line and sinker for and unlike his major competitor - Christian Bale for Vice - he's supposedly been working the room very well. It's his Oscar to lose at this point.
That First Man's Ryan Gosling hasn't walked Best Actor this year, nevermind miss a nomination completely, is impossible to comprehend. Alongside Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born, they both gave masterful performances in an otherwise lacklustre year for Actor and should have dominated.
WILL WIN: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
SHOULD WIN: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
MISSING: Ryan Gosling, First Man
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Despite a couple of misses that give pause for thought (predominantly from SAG and BAFTA), Regina King will likely take Supporting Actress for If Beale Street Could Talk. On the back of her BAFTA victory, Rachel Weisz is giving her a good ol' fight but probable vote-splitting with her The Favourite co-star Emma Stone puts her in a weaker position to sew it up.
Emily Blunt's SAG victory makes her snub here for A Quiet Place all the more troubling while Claire Foy deserved to be a part of the conversation with First Man. Like Actress though, it's been a tremendously strong year and the category could have been filled out numerous times over. Weisz would take it for me but a Stone triumph would not upset me.
WILL WIN: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
SHOULD WIN: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
MISSING: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
After sweeping left, right and centre at the broadcasted ceremonies, anything but a Mahershala Ali victory would register as a gobsmacking shock. Richard E. Grant has reasoned that he's not even prepared a winner speech because every star has aligned for Ali thus far.
Speaking of Grant, he should have absolutely walked this category for Can You Ever Forgive Me?. Without a major cause of category fraud from Green Book, he likely would have. Unless The Academy play the 'overdue' card with Sam Elliott, Grant is Ali's biggest threat -- if such a charming man can be considered threatening. My mind is still blown that an establishment with the prestige it is associated with genuinely believes that Sam Rockwell gave a better performance than Timothée Chalamet in Beautiful Boy, but such is life.
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
SHOULD WIN: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
MISSING: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
TBA, come back soon x
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
TBA, come back soon x
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
With the frontrunner (Won't You Be My Neighbor?) missing, shockingly, and my favourite (Three Identical Strangers) following suit, it comes down to Free Solo vs. RBG. They're two very different types of documentaries; one pushes the boundaries technically while the other plays it safer, focusing on a national treasure of sorts. My gut says they'll go for the former but I wouldn't be surprised to hear either name called out.
WILL WIN: Free Solo
SHOULD WIN: Free Solo
MISSING: Three Identical Strangers
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Incredibles 2 ruled the roost before Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse came swinging into town. If it could go wrong, it will go wrong here given Hollywood's adoration for all things Disney - but the love for Spider-Verse's creativity (and the filmmakers' charm all season long) should seal the deal for Spidey and Spidey and Spidey and friends.
WILL WIN: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
SHOULD WIN: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
MISSING: Smallfoot
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE:
It would be perplexing for the Academy to hand Roma the award for Best Picture and not the Foreign Language Oscar, but stranger things have happened and perhaps they'll choose to spread the love? If anyone would benefit from that, it would be Cold War - in my opinion, the superior black-and-white release of the year - but it will be another trophy in Roma's haul here. Shoplifters should be entitled to love, too: it's my favourite non-English release of the year.
BEST FILM EDITING:
If they are going to commemorate First Man anywhere this year, it will be in Sound Editing. They take us into space and it's impeccably done, masterfully handled and balanced. Maybe Bohemian muscles in, like I expect it to in Mixing, unless A Quiet Place - a sound so focused on the concept - defeats them both.
WILL WIN: Roma
SHOULD WIN: Shoplifters
MISSING: Smallfoot
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Another award for Cuarón and Roma. It's nailed on at this stage.
I adore Robbie Ryan's work in The Favourite, although I'd be content if Lukasz Zal made his way on stage for Cold War. I can't fault Cuaron's brilliance with Roma, though, and I'll cheer a win.
WILL WIN: Roma
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MISSING: If Beale Street Could Talk
No category has proved more shocking than Best Film Editing this year. Perhaps I could be so bold as to suggest the voters judged this category as 'most editing' rather than 'best editing' -- it would explain Bohemian and Vice's appearance. The latter will likely go on to win it, which is all I'll say to avoid angering myself.
A longtime indicator of a Best Picture winner, it's a chink in Roma's armour that it missed here -- particularly in the slot of Bohemian and the wholly unremarkably Green Book. First Man should have dominated this category; its absence will always trouble.
WILL WIN: Vice
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MISSING: First Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Goodness knows what is happening this year with Original Score. Each major ceremony has awarded a different winner, with both the BAFTA winner (A Star Is Born for 'Original Music') and the Globe winner (First Man) not nominated. If Beale Street Could Talk is the most memorable composition but this award almost always goes to a film nominated for Best Picture; Beale Street missed. Still, in such an unpredictable year, you sometimes have to grab the bull by the horns and ignore tradition: I think Beale Street has this, with Black Panther its biggest challenger.
All I know is that my heart will always be with the real winner: Justin Hurwitz's First Man.
WILL WIN: Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
SHOULD WIN: Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
MISSING: Justin Hurwitz, First Man
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Probably the safest bet. We're not far from the shallow now, Gaga.
WILL WIN: "Shallow", A Star Is Born
SHOULD WIN: "Shallow", A Star Is Born
MISSING: "A Cover Is Not The Book", Mary Poppins Returns
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Another mightily confusing category. Black Panther earned six nominations across the Oscars but missed here; it was only nominated by BAFTA for this award, and won. There's no rhyme or reason. Avengers: Infinity War will probably take it for the sheer amount of VFX, although Ready Player One stands a chance for the very same reason. It would be nice them to lean practical and hand First Man the award but it's unlikely.
WILL WIN: Avengers: Infinity War
SHOULD WIN: Avengers: Infinity War
MISSING: Paddington 2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
It's neck-and-neck between Black Panther and The Favourite for Production Design. Black Panther's world is undeniably huge in scale and impressive in detail; The Favourite manages a similar level of grandeur on a far smaller production budget. I'm picturing the Academy electing the former although I'd award the latter.
WILL WIN: Black Panther
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MISSING: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Again, it's an even closer tooth-and-dagger fight between Black Panther and The Favourite. The Academy often can't resist a period drama, and Sandy Powell is a familiar name to them, nominated twice this year alone. But Black Panther reflects great heritage and culture in its garments and I envision them picking the superhero film with a message.
WILL WIN: Black Panther
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MISSING: A Simple Favour
BEST SOUND EDITING:
WILL WIN: First Man
SHOULD WIN: First Man
MISSING: The Favourite
BEST SOUND MIXING:
It's going to be Bohemian, isn't it? They can't resist a crowd sequence and the film's culminating moment - the Live Aid recreation - is admittedly well done. I'd give it the edge over A Star Is Born, because the Queen performative moments feel bigger.
WILL WIN: Bohemian Rhapsody
SHOULD WIN: First Man
MISSING: The Favourite
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
They may as well announce Vice now, save me the pain of hearing it win an award during the actual ceremony.
WILL WIN: Vice
SHOULD WIN: Mary Queen of Scots
MISSING: Black Panther
- - - - - - - - -
Tally:
(Including screenplay)
Will Win:
Roma - 4
Black Panther - 2
Bohemian Rhapsody - 2
If Beale Street Could Talk - 2
Vice - 2
Avengers: Infinity War - 1
BlacKkKlansman - 1
The Favourite - 1
First Man - 1
Free Solo - 1
Green Book - 1
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse - 1
A Star Is Born - 1
The Wife - 1
Should Win:
The Favourite - 7
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3
A Star Is Born - 2
First Man - 2
Avengers: Infinity War - 1
Free Solo - 1
If Beale Street Could Talk - 1
Mary Queen of Scots - 1
Shoplifters - 1
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse - 1
MISSING: Black Panther
- - - - - - - - -
Tally:
(Including screenplay)
Will Win:
Roma - 4
Black Panther - 2
Bohemian Rhapsody - 2
If Beale Street Could Talk - 2
Vice - 2
Avengers: Infinity War - 1
BlacKkKlansman - 1
The Favourite - 1
First Man - 1
Free Solo - 1
Green Book - 1
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse - 1
A Star Is Born - 1
The Wife - 1
Should Win:
The Favourite - 7
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3
A Star Is Born - 2
First Man - 2
Avengers: Infinity War - 1
Free Solo - 1
If Beale Street Could Talk - 1
Mary Queen of Scots - 1
Shoplifters - 1
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse - 1